Speakers :

Laurent Pfister (LIST)

Claude Meisch (Administration de la gestion de l’eau)

Judith Meyer (LIST)

In the early summer of 2016 and 2018, heavy rainfall events and flash floods in the Mullerthal caused largely surprising high damage. The question arises whether the events really came as such a surprise. As early as 1958, a similar event could be observed in the Mullerthal, and Luxembourgish chronicles also mention the East of the country for an increased risk of thunderstorms. However, a precise prediction of these thunderstorm cells is not possible at present. In both years, exceptionally long convective weather patterns dominated the weather and also brought many heavy rain events and flooding in France and Germany. A trend toward more frequent occurrence of such weather patterns appears to have emerged over recent years, as suggested by analyses of atmospheric humidity and instability. A potentially dangerous situation is emerging from the potential increase in heavy rainfall events and the difficulty in accurately forecasting these small-scale, short-term, and very intense weather phenomena when combined with land use change. With the current state of technology and research, there is still no absolute protection for this and the residual risk, the remaining risk after all measures have been implemented, remains high

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